Murphy and Topel break down net gains by age and gender, showing that the value of increased longevity far exceeds rising medical expenditures overall.

Even modest advancements against major diseases would have a significant impact, say Kevin M. Murphy and Robert H. Topel, two University of Chicago researchers. For example, a 1 percent reduction in mortality from cancer would be worth $500 billion in the US alone. A cure for cancer would reap a financial reward estimated at $50 trillion.

Value of Increased Longevity

"We distinguish two types of health improvements," explain the authors, "those that extend life and those that raise the quality of life. As the population grows, as incomes grow, and as the baby-boom generation approaches the primary ages of disease-related death, the social value of improvements in health will continue to rise."

Analyses of medical costs often focus on procedures that aim to extend the lives of people near death, they note. Murphy and Topel break down net gains by age and gender, showing that the value of increased longevity far exceeds rising medical expenditures overall.

Gains in life expectancy over the last century were worth about $1.2 million per person to the current population, they figure, with the largest gains at birth and young age.

Willingness to Pay for Improvements

"An analysis of the value of health improvements is a first step toward evaluating the social returns to medical research and health-augmenting innovations," write the authors. "Improvements in life expectancy raise willingness to pay for further health improvements by increasing the value of remaining life."

The two researchers also chart individual values resulting from the permanent reduction in mortality in several major diseases, including heart disease, cancer and diabetes. Overall, reductions in mortality from 1970 to 2000 had an economic value to the US population of $3.2 trillion per year, they report.