New research underscores how crucial it is to take the illness seriously and plan accordingly, the Ministry says. In a paper published in the latest NZ Medical Journal, researchers Nick Wilson, Osman Mansoor and Michael Baker predict the toll a pandemic might have on the country, based on figures they arrived at by applying an American model to Statistics New Zealand and census data.

Sobering Figures

The figures are sobering, says Director-General of Health Dr. Karen Poutasi, but no surprise to the Ministry, which has long been concerned about the possibility of another influenza pandemic.

"Too often, we use the word 'flu' to describe something just a little worse than the common cold -- more a nuisance than a threat. However, each year, normal seasonal flu kills some 90 New Zealanders. For some time, we have been worried about the possibility of a flu pandemic caused by a more virulent strain," Dr. Poutasi says.

"Nobody can be sure where or when it will emerge, but the ongoing H5N1 bird flu outbreaks in Southeast Asia have the experts concerned. We need to act prudently and responsibly in continuing to prepare," hse urges.

Good Foundation

It is important to strike a balance between making people aware of the seriousness of influenza, and preventing them from being unduly frightened, notes Dr. Poutasi.

"There's no doubting that a pandemic would be a major disaster," she says. "Worldwide, we could be looking at tens of millions of deaths, as well as huge social and economic impacts. While there is a lot of work going on internationally to develop a vaccine against H5N1, our best defence locally is planning and preparedness to help us endure a pandemic as best we can," advises Dr. Poutasi.

"In New Zealand, we first developed our national pandemic plan in 2002. Since then, we updated and refined the national plan, and all district health boards have underpinned it with local plans. Given that the World Health Organization just last month recommended that all countries have a national plan, we think our efforts in this area give us a good foundation," she points out.

Public Health Interventions Excluded

Dr. Poutasi said it was worth noting that the model the research team used specifically excluded "effective public health interventions" when estimating the effects an influenza pandemic could have on New Zealanders.

"We believe we do have some effective interventions, and are constantly looking at how we can have more."

"We have just announced an order for a stockpile of antivirals. We are continually updating and refining our plans to look at, for example, ways of assessing and treating sick people with the least possible exposure to others, developing protocols for quarantine and isolation, and many other strategies which could lessen the impact of a pandemic.

"We also have the recent experience of SARS, which saw a lot of work with other agencies to implement options for border control -- which could help reduce the chances of spreading the disease.

Dr. Poutasi said the Ministry of Health commissioned the research announced Friday as part of its ongoing work in preparing for an influenza pandemic.