By 2025, Africa and the world could face three very different scenarios for AIDS. And depending on the actions taken today, up to 43 million HIV infections could be averted over the next 20 years.

These findings are from "AIDS in Africa: Three Scenarios to 2025." Overall, "Traps and Legacies" shows what might happen if there are inefficient domestic AIDS policies in Africa and volatile or declining external aid, "Tough Choices" shows what is possible when there are efficient domestic policies but stagnant external aid; and "Times of Transition" shows what might happen if there are more efficient domestic policies and increased and high quality external aid.

"The scenarios are not predictions. They are plausible stories about the future," said Dr. Peter Piot, UNAIDS Executive Director, at the press launch of the report. "The scenarios highlight the various choices that are likely to confront African countries in the coming decades. Millions of new infections can be prevented if Africa and the rest of the world decide to tackle AIDS as an exceptional crisis that has the potential to devastate entire societies and economies."

Glimpses into the Future

More than 150 people, mostly Africans, gave their time and expertise to build the scenarios. This project was initiated by UNAIDS in February 2003 in collaboration with the African Union, African Development Bank, UN Economic Commission for Africa, United Nations Development Programme, and the World Bank. Royal Dutch/Shell Group shared their scenario development expertise with the project.

"The scenarios provide us with glimpses into the future, so that we can make good decisions today," said Ethiopian President Girma Woldegiorgis. "At a time when there is increased willingness to tackle AIDS in Africa, we must galvanise all resources -- human and financial -- and use them effectively for sustainable change."

One Central Question

The scenarios set out to answer one central question: "Over the next 20 years, what factors will drive Africa's and the world's responses to the AIDS epidemic, and what kind of future will there be for the next generation?" The scenarios project was based on two key assumptions:

1) AIDS is not a short-term problem; AIDS will affect Africa 20 years from now. What is uncertain is in what ways and to what extent AIDS will shape Africa's future.

2) Decisions taken now will shape the future of the continent.

The scenarios also address the factors fuelling Africa's AIDS epidemics, including poverty, gender inequality, and underdevelopment.

"The scenarios highlight the driving forces that are influencing the evolution of the epidemic," said President Olusegun Obasanjo of Nigeria, in a message read out at the launch. "They help to improve the ways we engage with the challenges that are posed, they stimulate debates, and clarify policy and programme decisions for the continent."