Wherever in the world a flu pandemic starts, perhaps with its epicentre in the Far East, we must assume we will be unable to prevent it reaching the UK, Sir Liam Donaldson said.

Roche will supply 14.6 million courses of oseltamivir (Tamiflu) over the next two financial years, with 7.3 million courses available by the end of 2005-06 and the rest as soon as possible during the next financial year.

The move came as Sir Liam Donaldson, the Chief Medical Officer, published the Government's Pandemic Influenza Contingency Plan, setting out the steps being taken to prepare for a flu pandemic.

Enough for One-Fourth of Population

"We are working closely with other governments and the World Health Organization to ensure the international community is as well prepared as it can be to spot and address the early signs of a pandemic as quickly as possible," John Reid said.

"However, it makes sense to ensure we in the UK are as prepared as we can be and have drugs for use against an influenza pandemic here. That is why I have ordered 14.6 million courses of oseltamivir for delivery over the next two financial years. This will enable us to treat one in four of the UK population -- the proportion which the WHO recommends we plan for," he added.

New Vaccine Will Needed

Pandemic flu is not like the "seasonal" flu that occurs every winter in the UK, notes the Health Department. It would be expected to cause more serious illness and affect far more people. Experts believe a new pandemic strain of flu is likely to spread rapidly across the globe.

Around one in four of the UK population could be affected by the disease, authorities estimate. Without medical countermeasures, the number of deaths resulting from pandemic flu could be 50,000 or higher. "Seasonal" flu results in around 12,000 deaths a year.

Influenza pandemics are caused when a new flu virus emerges that is markedly different from recently circulating strains. As it is new, ordinary flu vaccines will not be effective, and a new vaccine will need to be made. This will take time. Therefore, a vaccine will not be available at the beginning of a pandemic. Tamiflu is expected to reduce the impact of the disease.

Impact Will Be Severe

"Wherever in the world a flu pandemic starts, perhaps with its epicentre in the Far East, we must assume we will be unable to prevent it reaching the UK," Sir Liam Donaldson said.

"When it does, its impact will be severe in the number of illnesses and the disruption to everyday life. The steps we are setting out today will help us to reduce the disease's impact on our population. "We have already started work which should help speed up the production of a vaccine once a pandemic strain of flu has emerged," he added.

"From an initial review of the document, I note that this is a high quality plan, which shows that the UK continues to be at the forefront of preparations internationally for pandemic influenza. We hope that every country will develop their preparations to the same high degree," Dr. Anarfi Asamoa-Baah, Assistant Director General for Communicable Diseases at the World Health Organisation said.

Plan Highlights

Measures set out in the plan include the following:

- Improving surveillance of avian or 'bird' flu in South East Asia -- seen by experts as the most likely source of a pandemic strain of flu transmitted by people. The UK Government recently gave the World Health Organization £500,000 to boost avian flu monitoring in the region and improve the chances of an early warning of a pandemic.

- Ensuring robust surveillance of possible cases in the UK, using the existing procedures of the Health Protection Agency and Royal College of General Practitioners to monitor flu-like cases seen by GPs.

- Informing the public about the likely risks of a pandemic and what they should do in the event of pandemic flu.

- Being prepared to take steps to reduce the risk of spread of the disease, such as advising against certain travel, possibly closing schools and cancelling events where large crowds gather, such as football matches or pop concerts.

- Considering how antiviral drugs will be used to treat people who are confirmed or suspected cases of pandemic flu.

- Explaining how a vaccine might be developed and, once created, how it would be used.

- Suggesting how Government departments and key industries can prepare to minimise the impact of pandemic flu on everyday life.