'If we keep using Tamiflu like it's in the tap water, then it's going to lose its effectiveness,' warns one physician.

Tamiflu, a prescription drug designed to treat regular flu, is running scarce because of worries the bird flu in Asia might mutate into a contagious human flu that circles the globe. Tamiflu seems to offer some protection to people against the type of flu that has devastated Asian poultry flocks and is spreading to birds in Europe. Bird flu has killed more than 60 people over the past two years.

Tamiflu's maker, Roche Holding AG in Switzerland, said Thursday it was temporarily suspending US shipments because of increased global demand. Company officials have previously said they were limiting supplies to pharmacies to thwart hoarding.

But there are signs that is already happening.

"We've seen recently some very large purchases at the wholesale level, companies or large entities who are possibly hoarding Tamiflu right now," said Darien Wilson, spokeswoman at Roche's US offices in New Jersey.

Disadvantage for Society

Prescriptions for the drug last week were nearly quadruple what they were a year before, according to Verispan, a Pennsylvania-based company that monitors pharmacy sales. Some health departments and doctors' groups are urging consumers, doctors and even school districts not to stockpile the drug.

And the winter flu season in the US hasn't even started yet.

"The priority is that there is enough Tamiflu for the people who need it at the start of the influenza season," said Roche spokesman Alexander Klauser. "At the moment, there is no influenza currently circulating."

The American Medical Association is against personal stockpiling and says the misuse of Tamiflu could lead to drug-resistant flu strains.

The American Academy of Pediatrics is preparing a statement urging pediatricians "not to do personal or organizational stockpiles," said Dr. John Bradley, a member of the American Academy of Pediatrics' infectious disease committee. "The last sentence of the statement is that no pediatrician on this committee has a personal stockpile or is prescribing the drug" for healthy people.

"It would be nice to have a personal stockpile, but I believe that the disadvantage for society is so much greater than my own personal interest in staying well," Bradley said.

Not Spreading Between People

Meanwhile, the US government isn't giving advice on whether people should have a stash of Tamiflu, just in case bird flu triggers a human pandemic.

"Those are questions that are under discussion," said Christina Pearson, spokeswoman for the US Department of Health and Human Services. "Right now we're focused on the seasonal flu."

The federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, whose job includes making public health recommendations, have been silent on the issue of hoarding, causing frustration among some local health departments.

"A lot of people have asked the CDC to provide some guidance about this, with patients asking doctors for prescriptions," said Dr. Craig Conover, medical director for the Illinois Department of Public Health.

Dr. Bennett Kaye, a Chicago pediatrician, said he tells patients that stocking up on Tamiflu "is definitely a bad, bad idea."

"Parents should not be worried about their kids catching bird flu this year unless they're planning on visiting a chicken farm in Vietnam," Kaye said. "If we keep using Tamiflu like it's in the tap water, then it's going to lose its effectiveness."

The virus circulating among Asian birds is not spreading between people and experts say it is not very easy for people to catch from birds.

"This is not a concern for the person on the street," Kaye said.

Surgical Face Masks

Tamiflu isn't the only hot commodity being sought because of pandemic worries.

Kimberly-Clark Health Care says it has "ramped up to full capacity" its production of surgical face masks that protect against airborne disease transmission in order to keep up with bird flu-linked demand from governments, hospitals and individuals.

Company spokesman David Parks declined to specify numbers but said some orders have been 50 times higher than usual.